April'18 Issue 12
Inside This Issue
- Introduction: Considerations on Current Security Developments by DRK
- DRK Insight and Studies
- Regional Developments
- Turkey Security Incidents Overview (1 Month)
- Turkey Security Incidents Overview (3 Months)
- Turkey's Next Case; Manbij
- The role of the Risk Management in the Business Impact Analysis (BIA)
Introduction: Considerations on Current Security Developments by DRK
DRK provides you with analysis, reports and assessments on the daily/periodic developments in and around Turkey with regard to their effects to the current/future security environment and to the business continuity.
To do so, DRK conducts the Security & Risk Management Processes under the support of a continuous strategic guidance from strategic experts, a benefit and exception which enhances the long term vision of DRK.
The latest and best example for this working philosophy can be seen in the DRK's “Possible Business-Wise Repercussions of Turkish Army Intervention into Afrin Region in Northern Syria’’ document.
The parameters given in the document were primary determinants for the duration and intensity of the operation. Especially time was the primary determinant for the success of the operation. Under the support of diplomatic engagements with all important players in the region parallel to the operation “Olive Branch’’ the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) has taken the control of Afrin city center after 58 days.
The course of actions and phases of operation were affected by the existence of the civilians and delicacy paid by the Turkish army in order to minimize the civilian losses. This precisely planned and implemented course of action has raised the military casualties of TAF to a higher level but, helped Turkey to minimize the rejections raised by some western countries from very beginning of the operation.
There are now strong statements made by Turkish policy makers regarding possible following operations to Manbij and Sincar.
Similarly, it is considered that timing is a key factor to pay attention in order to keep the overall security in an appropriate manner for the companies operating in Turkey.
DRK Insights and Studies
- Sochi Summit and Re-positioning Turkey’s Security Philosophy
- Egypt Mosque Attack: A Brief Analysis and Possible Consequences
- Turkey – NATO Relations; Perspectives for the Future
- Unlawful Referendum Attempt of Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Its Implications
- Possible Business – Wise Repercussions of a Potential Turkish Army intervention into Afrin Region in Northern Syria
- PKK-PYD-ISIS, Interactions; Future Possibilities on the Regional Terrorism Developments
- Large Scale Social Kurdish Turmoil - 6-7 October 2014 - Turkey
- PKK Attack Profile 2017
The corporate security managers should focus on aligning security with the business, so that doing business and doing security can be achieved with full integration.
Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran agree to create new trade corridors to connect Asia, Europe: The foreign ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Iran signed an agreement on projects to create a transportation and transit corridor between the Indian Ocean and Europe in Baku on March 15.. The Rasht-Astara Railway, which is being built by the Iranian government in cooperation with Azerbaijan, will be connected with the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway, which was built by Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan and became operational on Oct. 30, 2017.
(Accessed on March 15, 2018)
Turkish forces and Free Syrian Army capture Afrin city: Turkish forces and Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels captured the centre of Afrin in northwest Syria after PKK/PYD who were in control evacuated the city. "Many of the terrorists had turned tail and run away already," President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a speech.
(Accessed on March 18, 2018)
U.S. Navy Arrives as Exxon Begins Cyprus Campaign: American oil major ExxonMobil has launched its exploration campaign off the coast of Cyprus, despite Turkish threats against oil majors over leases in Cypriot waters. The Exxon-chartered research vessel Med Surveyor departed Limassol and is operating off the island's southwest coast.
(Accessed on March 19, 2018)
The power of the corporate security function is directly proportionate to the quality of its relationships and communication, not the depth of its content knowledge.
Turkey says understanding, but no deal, with U.S. on Syria's Manbij: Turkey and the United States have reached an understanding, but not full agreement, about stabilizing the town of Manbij and other areas of Kurdish-controlled northern Syria, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said. “Manbij is, of course, not enough. First, the YPG will leave and the people of Manbij will govern it. The security of the area will be ensured. We will apply the Manbij model to other areas controlled by the YPG as well,” he added.
(Accessed on March 21, 2018)
President Erdogan says Turkey to take control of Syria's Tel Rifaat: President Erdogan has vowed to extend the military operation along the Syrian border and said the Turkish-led forces would take control of the town of Tal Rifaat. “Ongoing operation in Syria would achieve its goal when Tel Rifaat in northern Aleppo is taken under control” he added.
(Accessed on March 26, 2018)
Iraq moves to erase PKK risk on border with Turkey: Iraqi troops have been deployed in parts of the country’s Sinjar district, from which militants of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) recently retreated. The move comes amid talks between Iraq and Turkey about possible moves to clear the entire border region of militants.
(Accessed on March 27, 2018)
EU-Turkey summit ends with 'no solutions': European Council president Donald Tusk, along with European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and Bulgaria's prime minister Boyko Borissov, had met with Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan as part of a broader effort to improve fraught relations. Speaking to reporters in the Black Sea resort of Varna, Tusk said no solutions or compromises had been found between Ankara and the EU.
(Accessed on March 27, 2018)
Two Turkish soldiers killed in Syria’s Afrin in IED blast: Two Turkish soldiers have been killed in Syria’s northwestern Afrin region during a sweep and clear mission, the Turkish army said on March 27. The Turkish General Staff said an improvised explosive device (IED) went off March 26 as Turkish troops were clearing an area taken from People’s Protection Units (YPG) militants as part of “Operation Olive Branch.” Meanwhile, a bomb planted by YPG militants exploded inside a house in Afrin’s Ashrafieh neighborhood on the same day, killing seven members of a family, reports said.
(Accessed on March 27, 2018)
Turkey Security Incidents Overview – 1 Month (March 1 – 31, 2018)
Turkey Security Incidents Overview – 3 Months (January 1 – March 31, 2018)
Security Department should expand their work far beyond the traditional security understanding to include issues such as business continuity, reputation, risk management and corporate responsibility.
Turkey's Next Case; Manbij
Upon the successful implementation of Operation Olive Branch by the Turkish Armed Forces against the terrorist Kurdish groups in Afrin, now the attentions have been focused on Manbij case which is still governed by Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces openly supported by the USA. Turkish President reiterated several times that, Manbij would be the priority target for Turkey and the USA should abandon its military presence and its support to Kurdish groups in the region. There were erratic and clashing declarations from both sides so far. As Turkish Governmental officials declared repeatedly that they had reached consensus with the USA upon cooperation in Manbij, the US authorities have not only denied these declarations but further asserted that the US forces would not leave the area. The US apparently seems to consider the hardships of breaking Turkey's advances in Syria and in Iraq once it ever gains initiative over Manbij. Moreover, in the US perspective, it seems that the quarrel is not solely limited with a Turkey-US context and it is more relevant to a US - Russia deal indeed. DRK assessed the "time" factor as the most prominent one of the main pillars of grand strategy in Afrin case. This was mostly related to the sensitivities in Turkey's South East considering the ever approaching "PKK season" towards April - May. Thus DRK still considers that the time factor should and (probably will) be considered again in the foremost priority by the Turkish policy makers. As such, it is advised for the business operators in Turkey to evaluate the developments in a "time-based" approach rather than a "power-based" one in the coming weeks.
Security department should persuade employees and even team members to cooperate. So that it can integrate and align with the core business' requirements.
The role of the Risk Management in the Business Impact Analysis (BIA)
The BIA is a process to determine the priorities for the resumption of business activities after an interruption due to the realization of a risk. It aims to identify:
- The Critical Business Functions,
- Their vulnerabilities to the risks,
- Business Continuity Strategies and response/recovery objectives.
Business is exposed to wide range of risks that affect business activities. The risks can have an economic, financial, legal, operational, and reputational impact. BIA allows organizations to respond these risks rather than react them. Therefore, the output of the Risk Management constitutes the input of the BIA process. Accordingly, an organization should establish a robust connection between the Risk Management and BIA.
Proper integration of two processes will serve to the resilience of the organization and ensure that the organization operates under adverse conditions. Thus, the security function of the organization should focus on the full spectrum of the risks and engage in BIA process proactively.
Responding the impacts of the risks requires the existence of a proactive and comprehensive risk management approach that aims to return to normal business operations as quickly as possible. In this regard, DRK can provide reliable, sustainable, cost-effective risk management solutions ranging from conducting security check-up to evacuation of personnel from the unsafe site.