September'18 Issue 21

Inside This Issue

  1. Introduction: DRK Specifics
  2. DRK Insight and Studies
  3. Regional Developments
  4. Turkey Security Incident Overview (1 Month)
  5. Turkey Security Incident Overview (3 Months)
  6. The Possible Idlib Offensive of the Syrian Regime and Its Implications on Turkey
  7. The Risk – Threat - Vulnerability Formula

Introduction: DRK Specifics

DRK;

  • Provides cost-effective solutions.
  • Works directly in the field in permanent manner.
  • Has an extensive network of local (civil) and official figures even in the most remote locations.
  • Employs highly experienced security experts tailored to customer needs throughout whole Turkey including the most security problematic regions.
  • Benefits from the higher level strategic expertise of the academicians, experts, analysts to provide overarching guidance.
  • Rather focuses on long term (Project lifecycle) security requirements.

DRK Insight and Case Studies

Snapshots

  • Turkey’s Strategic Positioning Amidst the Rising Tension with the United States
  • Designating Turkey’s Security Concerns in Syria: Ongoing Conflict in Idlib
  • Unlawful Referendum Attempt of Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Its Implications
  • Turkey – NATO Relations; Perspectives for the Future

 

Case Study & Insights

  • A Strategic Target: Oil and Gas Pipelines
  • The Increasing Tension Between Iran and S. Arabia and Its Possible Implications for Global Business
  • Possible Business – Wise Repercussions of a Potential Turkish Army intervention into Afrin Region in Northern Syria
  • PKK-PYD-ISIS, Interactions; Future Possibilities on the Regional Terrorism Developments

See all our products

 

 

 

 

 


Security is an interdisciplinary area, the tools of which extend definitely beyond the scope of employment of Security Personnel and CCTV systems.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Effective security management, in its essence, should mean a support for the “Continuity of Business” rather than the blocking of business wise activities due to the security regulations.


 

Regional Developments  

Turkey Designates Tahrir al-Sham as Terrorist Group: Turkey has listed the Jabhat al-Nusra armed Islamist group as a terrorist organization, according to a decree signed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Tahrir al-Sham controls much of the Idlib province in Syria. Syrian forces are currently preparing an offensive in the region to clear Idlib and surrounding areas of militant groups.

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201809011067675558-turkey-nursa-terrorists-list/

Accessed on September 1, 2018

 

New rules introduced to increase maritime safety in Turkish straits: Turkish authorities have included eight rules to existing regulations to increase maritime safety in the Bosphorus and Çanakkale straits. Vessels that carry liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and are longer than 150 meters will have to navigate through the straits only in daytime and they will be accompanied by a harbor pilot and a towboat.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/new-rules-introduced-to-increase-maritime-safety-in-turkish-straits-136432

Accessed on September 3, 2018

 

Airstrikes hit last bastion of Syrian rebels as final showdown looms: Russian warplanes in Syria bombed the country’s final rebel stronghold. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights recorded nine deaths and more than 45 strikes around the northern city of Jisr al-Shughour in Idlib province.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/airstrikes-hit-last-bastion-of-syrian-rebels-as-final-showdown-looms/2018/09/04/4584e12e-b027-11e8-a810-4d6b627c3d5d_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.89feb54bc6d5

Accessed on September 4, 2018

 

Presidents of Russia, Turkey and Iran Meet to Plot Future of Syria Ahead of Battle for Last Rebel Stronghold: The presidents of Iran, Russia and Turkey met to discuss the future of Syria as a bloody military operation looms in the last rebel-held area of the war-ravaged nation, urging militants to lay down their weapons. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for a cease-fire and an end to airstrikes in the northwestern province of Idlib, something that wasn’t immediately accepted by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

http://time.com/5389823/putin-erdogan-rouhani-meet-syria/

Accessed on September 7, 2018

 

Pentagon sends reinforcements to remote Syria base after Russia threatens attack: More than 100 U.S. Marines were sent as reinforcements to a remote coalition outpost in southern Syria after Russia threatened to attack militants in the area, the Pentagon said. The troops were flown by helicopter to the base at Tanf — a small town near Syria’s borders with Iraq and Jordan. The base is used by U.S. special forces to train Syrian fighters who are confronting Islamic State militants.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-fg-syria-troops-20180907-story.html

Accessed on September 7, 2018

 

Turkey Masses Troops on Syrian Border, Braces for Refugees: Turkey massed tanks and commandos at its frontier and accelerated work to cope with a possible surge of refugees after Russia refused to call off an offensive against the last rebel bastion in Syria. Turkish Army also reinforced 12 outposts on Syrian territory where Turkish soldiers along with Russians and Iranians monitor flare-ups of violence, according to reports.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-10/turkey-masses-troops-on-syrian-border-braces-for-new-refugees

Accessed on September 10, 2018

 

Turkey, Russia, Iran reach 'agreement in principle' on Syria constitutional committee lists: Turkey, Russia and Iran have reached an "agreement in principle" on the lists of Syrian regime and opposition lists to form a constitutional committee. The representatives of the three guarantor countries met UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura on Sept. 10-11 in Geneva.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-russia-iran-reach-agreement-in-principle-on-syria-constitutional-committee-lists-136735

Accessed on September 11, 2018

 

Russia launches massive military drill ‘Vostok-2018’: Russia’s largest post-soviet military exercises “Vostok-2018” has started. The drill will take place in the Russian Far East and in the Pacific Ocean from Sept. 11 to 17, the ministry said in a statement on its official website. 300,000 military men from the Eastern and Central military districts, Northern Navy and Air Forces will take part in the drill.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/russia-launches-massive-military-drill-vostok-2018-/1251892

Accessed on September 11, 2018

 

Turkey Security Incident Overview – 1 Month (August 15 – September 15, 2018)

Turkey Security Incident Overview – 3 Months (June 15 – September 15, 2018)

 

 

 

 


Reliable security assessments and applications should be derived by a holistic and top down approach to the security environment, depending on the variations respectively from areas of interests, to the areas of effect, and to the areas of business operations.


 

The Possible Idlib Offensive of the Syrian Regime and Its Implications on Turkey

DRK experts have come up with a policy paper concerning the possible offensive towards Syria’s Idlib and the latest Tehran Summit;

In late July 2018, a harassment fire, witnessed in northern rural Hama, -the south of Idlib- symbolized the de facto beginning of a final regime assault on the last stronghold of the opposition forces. The initial response of Turkey was to bring cement barriers of 2.5 m high to reinforce previously established military observation points while President Erdogan announced that the Turkish Army would not allow an offensive against Idlib. On August 18, it was reported that Turkey transferred tanks enroute to military observation points in Morek and al-Eis areas. Turkey has already declared Idlib as its “red line”. Nevertheless, Syrian Arab Army built up mass troops around Idlib.

On September 7, Presidents of Turkey, Russia and Iran met to discuss the fate of Idlib, in which President Erdoğan’s call for ceasefire was not approved by his counterparts. 3 leaders agreed to pursue political solutions so that the safe conditions could be provided for civilians. Nevertheless, the complexity of Turkey’s geopolitical positioning between the USA and Russia with regard to the interactions between the major interests of two prominent power poles exhibited itself clearly in the Summit. It is clear that Turkey’s options are now very limited and the process requires a careful diplomacy to prevent further escalation of the conflict.

 

 

 

 


Considering the competitive business environment, security applications should be provided in the most cost effective manner.


 

The Risk – Threat – Vulnerability Formula

Security is defined as being in the state of safe, free from danger, fear and distress. In order to protect people, assets and values, buildings, operations and commercial processes security is ensured with the methods and strategies developed according to the characteristics of each institution.

The terms “Risk and Threat” are usually referred to as common phrases in the security Environment.

Risk;

Risk is the cumulative impact of the events which affect any individual/institution’s target in positive or negative manner.  Risk is the manageable events/phenomena depending on the abilities and capabilities of the individual/institution. The potential for loss, damage or destruction of an asset as a result of a threat exploiting a vulnerability. Risk is the intersection of assets, threats, and vulnerabilities.

Threat;

Threat is defined as “a statement of an intention to inflict pain, injury, damage, or other hostile action on someone in retribution for something done or not done, a person or thing likely to cause damage or danger.” Threat is defined as unmanageable risk in security society. (Oxford Dictionary.) Anything that can exploit a vulnerability, intentionally or accidentally, and obtain, damage, or destroy an asset.

A threat is what we’re trying to protect against.

The definition of a condition as “Risk” or “Threat” mainly depends on perception of the individual, institution or state, in terms of his/her ability and capability, rather than the subject itself. If the risk has reached the destruction level of the individual, event or institution, it can be no longer possible to mention the manageability of it. It will be no longer a risk and in this case becomes a threat. So the main difference is that risk is manageable, whereas the threat is not. If the risk turns into a threat, then there must be some measures developed to protect threat.

Vulnerability;

Weaknesses or gaps in a security program that can be exploited by threats to gain unauthorized access to an asset. A vulnerability is a weakness or gap in our protection efforts.

The formula to determine risk is:

Asset + Threat + Vulnerability = Risk (A + T + V = R)

Risk is a function of threats exploiting vulnerabilities to obtain, damage or destroy assets. Thus, threats (actual, conceptual, or inherent) may exist, but if there are no vulnerabilities then there is little/no risk. Similarly, you can have a vulnerability, but if you have no threat, then you have little/no risk.

 

DRK Risk & Security Consulting

Mustafa Kemal Mah. Dumlupınar Blv .Tepe Prime No:266 A Blok Kat :6 No:82 Çankaya/ANKARA/TURKEY
Phone : +90 312 970 1982
Fax : +90 850 220 0451