February'18 Issue 8
Inside This Issue
1 Introduction: About DRK
2 DRK Insight and Studies
3 Regional Developments
4 Operation Olive Branch
5 Turkey Security Overview (16.01.2018-31.01.2018)
6 Designating Turkey’s Security Concerns in Syria: Ongoing Conflict in Idlib
7 Making Farms More Secure through Implementation of Layered Security
Introduction: About DRK
Turkish Armed Forces Operation Olive Branch in Afrin;
After a long process of political and diplomatic initiatives, Operation has jointly started with the Free Syrian Army forces. On the thirteenth day of the operation, total number of casualties on the Turkish army reached to 7. On the other side, as stated by the Turkish Government, 616 YPG/PYD terrorists have been neutralized.
It was surely a long waited prominent development regarding its potential effects on the security conditions in Turkey. It is now an important question as how and to which direction will this operation be managed in the mid and long term.
DRK assesses that, depending on the level of ambition and the scope of such a military intervention, contrary to the common expectations, there may not be a visible increase in the PKK atrocities in the south east in the short term of at least 3 months. Considering the de facto collaborations among many diversified terrorist organizations, we may rather expect an increase of atrocities in the western regions such as Istanbul, İzmir, Denizli, Aydın, Mugla, Adana, Gaziantep and Antalya. However in case of a prolonged armed clash situation between PKK/YPG and Turkish Army forces, the possibility of an incremental increase in PKK atrocities in the South East may be tentatively expected.
DRK confidently considers at this stage that the efficiency of the Turkish Security apparatus, along with the determination of the Government in the Fight Against Terrorism will not easily loose the control over the country against the terrorist aspirations.
In conclusion, DRK advises to companies/corporations operating in Turkey to follow professional advices especially with regard to logistics and travel activities during this specific period and closely monitor the developments to take place in the short and mid-term.
DRK Insight and Studies
· Egypt Mosque Attack: A Brief Analysis and Possible Consequences
· Turkey – NATO Relations; Perspectives for the Future
· Unlawful Referendum Attempt of Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Its Implications
· Designating Turkey’s Security Concerns in Syria: Ongoing Conflict in Idlib
· PKK-PYD-ISIS, Interactions; Future Possibilities on the Regional Terrorism Developments
· Large Scale Social Kurdish Turmoil - 6-7 October 2014 - Turkey
· PKK Attack Profile 2017
· Turkey’s Possible Military Operations: Idlib & Afrin
DRK provides its clients, in a Project life Cycle perspective, with security wise contributions for their overall Business Continuity plans through variety of sub-plans, policies, coordinative tools and mechanisms, tailored to the unique specifics of the business projects.
DRK delivers is Private Security in terms of analysis, assessments and plans for all aspects of private/VIP security matters as well as individual security support for the resident and traveling company employees.
Regional Developments
Turkish army announces ‘Operation Olive Branch’ in Afrin: Turkish military on Saturday announced it launched “Operation Olive Branch” on Saturday at 5.00 p.m. The Turkish General Staff made the announcement in a statement declaring that “‘Operation Olive Branch’ has been started on Jan. 20, 2018 at 5 p.m., in Syria’s northwestern Afrin region to establish security and stability on our borders and region, to eliminate terrorists of PKK/KCK/PYD-YPG and Daesh, and to save our friends and brothers… from their [ the terrorists’] oppression and cruelty.”
http://aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/turkish-army-announces-operation-olive-branch-in-afrin/1036799
(Accessed on January 20, 2018)
Operation Olive Branch to create 30-km-deep safe zone: Operation Olive Branch aims to create 30-kilometer-deep (approx. 19 miles) safe zone in northwestern Afrin region of Syria, Turkish prime minister said Sunday. "First goal [of the operation] is to create a safe area there and then we can take concrete steps to eliminate terrorist elements," Binali Yildirim told media representatives in Istanbul. He said there are 8,000-10,000 terrorists in Afrin and Turkey would clear all the terrorists on its borders.
http://aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/operation-olive-branch-to-create-30-km-deep-safe-zone/1037992
(Accessed on January 21, 2018)
US delegation in Ankara after Turkey’s Afrin operation: A U.S. delegation is having talks , in Ankara on Jan. 23, after Turkey launched “Operation Olive Branch” into Syria’s Afrin province. The U.S. delegation, led by Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Jonathan Cohen and officials from the Department of Defense, are in Ankara for talks as part of a joint working group that meets periodically. They are meeting in the Foreign Ministry with their Turkish partners headed by Ahmet Muhtar Gün, deputy secretary of the ministry.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/us-delegation-in-ankara-after-turkeys-afrin-operation-126157
(Accessed on January 23, 2018)
NATO says Turkey has a right to defend itself amid Afrin operation: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday that member state Turkey had a right to act in self-defence as Ankara presses a military operation against terrorist elements in northern Syria. "All nations have the right to defend themselves, but this has to be done in a proportionate and measured way," Stoltenberg said in a statement issued by his office.
(Accessed on January 25, 2018)
Trump says he will order 'safe zones' for Syria: Trump is expected to order the Pentagon and the State Department in coming days to craft a plan for setting up the “safe zones,” a move that could risk escalation of U.S. military involvement in Syria’s civil war. He said he “will absolutely do safe zones in Syria” for refugees fleeing violence in the war-torn country.
(Accessed on January 25, 2018)
Erdogan vows to expand Syria operation: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has promised to sweep militants from the length of Turkey's border with Syria with Operation Afrin. Erdogan says Ankara could extend its current military operation in northwest Syria all the way east to the border with Iraq.
http://www.euronews.com/2018/01/26/afrin-the-first-week
(Accessed on January 26, 2018)
Operation Olive Branch Current Situation Map
Turkey Security Incident Overview (16-31.01.2018)
DRK Analysts, designated for the management of each VIP protection project, prepare standard and alternative route and accommodation plans for the staff/VIPs.
Designating Turkey’s Security Concerns in Syria: Ongoing Conflict in Idlib
Large scale deployment of military troops along West Idlib seems to have more effective results by limiting regime forces with preventive intervention. Otherwise, the political and military crises, which could emerge after the fall of the last opposition-held stronghold, might have risked the possible Afrin operation. Possible returns of Turkish military involvement can be arrayed as the following
- Guaranteeing the existence of opposition groups in Astana and Sochi peace talks,
- Stopping regime forces’ advancement to Turkish border by preventive intervention,
- Increasing opportunities for and the security of Afrin operation,
- Preventing possible migration waves towards Turkey.
With a military operation, all 4 issues can be realized. As such Turkey could eliminate its Idlib-related security concerns. Otherwise, it is clear that the number of people fleeing and migrating towards North will increase. This is why Turkey’s actions are significant to prevent migration waves securitized both for Idlib and Turkey. Securing Idlib will also mean the securing of Afrin operation which Turkey have already started. Idlib is the south of Afrin where any future attack could come from towards Turkish military forces. And it is a place where there is no Turkish or Turkish-backed control around Afrin. Afrin is surrounded by Turkish controlled Euphrates Shield zone from east and opposition groups from west. Therefore, Turkey’s involvement in Idlib could also secure the course of military actions towards Afrin.
Making Farms More Secure through Implementation of Layered Security
Farm Security is emerging as an essential issue in the age of asymmetric terrorism. A farm in a remote area is vulnerable to various risks identified in the followings:
- Appalling the owner to sell the property,
- Theft of farm equipment, fuel, and chemicals,
- Sabotages such as burning of plants, trees, and storages,
- General vandalism,
- Mischiefs’ actions such as;
- Chemical contamination of the farm,
- Criminal damage to unsecured equipment and machinery,
- Destruction of confined animals, property, or products.
- Drug-related incidents.
These risks can emerge separately or successively depending on the situation. Therefore, proper risk analysis and threat assessment can help to implement the necessary precautions.
DRK can help the farmers through conducting Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA) based on its vast expertise on in-depth defense.
DRK Risk & Security Consulting
